Many moviegoers love trying to predict the Oscars each year, be they a part of an Oscar pool at their work or just for fun. But the Academy Awards come late in the awards season, so the voters like to spread the love by voting for different films or filmmakers than they did for the earlier guild awards. That can make it difficult to keep track of who or what may be the favorite for any given category at any given time. Thankfully, there are statistics available that may help you top your co-workers.
Predicting Best Director
Let’s start with the Directors Guild of America Awards (February 2nd). Only seven times has a director won the DGA Award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film and NOT ultimately won Best Director at the Academy Awards.
Predicting Best Picture
Next is the Producers Guild of America Awards (January 19). In its 29 years, the PGA Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture has correctly predicted the Best Picture Oscar-winner 20 times.
Regarding the Screen Actors Guild (January 27): Though the Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture has never guaranteed an Oscar win, it is unlikely that a movie will be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars without a SAG nod. In 23 years since the ensemble award was introduced, only two movies have gone on to win top honors at the Oscars without a SAG nomination.
Additionally, if a movie wins top honors at the SAG, DGA and PGA awards, it is basically certain to win Best Picture. Apollo 13 is the only film to win all three top honors and not win Best Picture at the Oscars.
What do you make of these stats and will you rely on them when it comes to predicting your Oscar pool this year? Let me know in the comments below!