The 91st Academy Awards ceremony is this Sunday and film fanatics are diligently filling out their Oscar ballots. But as any of them can tell you, researching your predictions can take time. Thankfully, there is an easier way… Math! The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards analyst Ben Zauzmer has compiled his eighth annual “Mathematical Oscar Predictions” in which he uses– you guessed it– math to predict who will walk away with the gold at the Oscars ceremony. How does it work? Well, I’ll just let Ben tell you:
“My model considers which categories a film is nominated in, other awards shows, and betting markets, weighting each of these factors by how well it has predicted each Oscar category in past years.”
There you have it! Numbers and patterns!
Last year, Ben’s system correctly pegged 20 out of the 21 Oscar categories that he entered the numbers for. Not too shabby! To make things even easier for your ballot, THR has broken down each category with an easy-to-read bar graph! Below you can check out the breakdowns for the eight above the line categories. Feel free to hit up Ben’s personal Twitter page to see the rest of his analysis and for a deeper dive into these categories!
*This process is not flawless. Every year it does get some things wrong and some years are worse than others and this year is especially unpredictable. In other words, these are not the guaranteed winners. You can’t get mad at Ben, THR or me if you go with these picks and get them wrong.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
There you have it! What do you make of these stats? Do they push you one way or another with your Oscar predictions? Let me know if they do and if they don’t and how come in the comments below!